Future Outlook: How Does Russia’s Invasion Impact America’s Energy Independence?

Russia invading Ukraine has saturated the American news cycle recently. There are many reasons this conflict has gripped the Western world so deeply, but if you’ve been at the gas pump lately, you know at least one of them. The spike in oil prices has affected the entire world, shooting gas up to over four dollars per gallon here in North Carolina and much higher in other regions. This has shaken up many Americans who aren’t used to foreign conflicts having any impacts on domestic soil. But how will this conflict affect our energy sector as a whole?

Gas prices spiked even before President Biden announced a ban on Russian oil on March 8, as this photo from PBS captures gas prices in New York City, New York, on March 7.

I had to do some reading to find out, because I am unfortunately not an expert on foreign energy policy or economics (A future endeavor, perhaps!). But never fear! The experts have you covered. According to The New York Times, Russia produces one in every ten barrels of oil used globally. Despite this, on March 8, President Biden announced a ban on Russian oil, coal, and natural gas imports, spiking the price surge in gas that occurred over the last month. President Biden noted that we were able to cut off this supply thanks to our strong domestic energy infrastructure.

This is a quote from a Forbes article by Robert Rapier, who explained a common definition of energy independence.

The President is likely referring to the switch in U.S. energy policy that refocused on energy independence over the last decade. The New York Times notes that in 2014 America tipped the scale from needing to import oil to exporting large amounts of oil and natural to other countries. This was largely thanks to new drilling techniques, commonly known as fracking. As unfortunate as these actions were for the outlook on the climate and environment, it has put the U.S. in a much more comfortable position than Europe, which heavily relies on Russia to supply its energy sector.

This graphic from NBC News shows Europe’s dependency on Russia’s natural gas exports by country.

Domestically, these circumstances have sparked debate between political parties. According to Vox, Republicans have argued that these circumstances prove that focusing on climate change and reducing emissions has left America more vulnerable to foreign influence. Vox also said that big oil executives have mirrored these claims, stating that they will ramp up production rates to support America’s interests. However, experts interviewed by Vox warn that increasing oil and natural gas production is not a quick fix, nor is it a great long-term solution. One of these experts, Sam Ori at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, told Vox that America now has a choice about the kind of energy infrastructure to invest in in the future. Instead of countering Russia’s supply of gas with more domestic gas for the duration of the conflict, the U.S. and Europe can focus on investing in clean technology and infrastructure. Doing so would affect long-term foreign relations and policy and ensures energy independence. And perhaps offers the chance at a habitable climate too, considering that one day the oil will run out regardless.

We got a bit broad; let’s zoom back in. How will this conflict affect you as an American consumer in the years to come? No one seems to be sure. Energywire notes that there could be a temporary increase in coal production due to high natural gas prices. Utilities could take more interest in investing in renewable technologies or may shy away from these investments due to fear of raising consumers’ electric bills further. You may see higher energy bills and fuel prices, for the time being, depending on where you live and how reliant your utility or energy provider is on natural gas. Regardless, the conflict has caused shockwaves through our policy leaders and serves as a reminder that the path we are on now is unsustainable for various reasons. How America moves forward and responds to these realizations is up to our leaders and therefore up to each of us as well.